Re: [sig-policy] [Sig-policy] prop-062-v001: Use of final /8

To: David Woodgate <David.Woodgate at telstra dot net>
Subject: Re: [sig-policy] [Sig-policy] prop-062-v001: Use of final /8
From: Leo Vegoda <leo.vegoda at icann dot org>
Date: Wed, 16 Jul 2008 00:36:49 -0700
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[...]

> My reasoning for this is thus:
> - The proposal suggests that all new and existing LIRs would get only
> one /22 from the last /8
> - There were ~1600 APNIC members at the start of 2008
> - I don't know the number of ISPs behind the NIRs, but I'm guessing ~1000 ?
> - APNIC membership grew ~200 in 2007, so allow for growth of ~1000
> ISPs over 5 years
> Therefore, there may be only ~4000 LIRs in the Asia-Pacific over the
> next 5 years.

Is past membership growth a good guide here? If existing members cannot get
additional IPv4 address space there will presumably be additional demand for
APNIC membership from networks that were previously happy to take a block of
PA space from an upstream ISP.

Regards,

Leo Vegoda