[I posted this to the ARIN PPML list yesterday, and I was then reminded
that the same policy has been submitted to the APNIC policy development
process, so Its relevant to theAPNIC policy discussion as well -- Geoff]
I've performed some analysis on this policy proposal, attempting to
understand to what extent adoption of this proposal would materially
alter the consumption of the remaining IPv4 unallocated address pool.
The original model I've used here is the model documented at
http://ipv4.potaroo.net. This model is based on an order 2 polynomial
extrapolation of the advertised address count, As noted on that page the
current projections using that model are the exhaustion of the IANA IPv4
address pool as of 1 June 2011 and the exhaustion of the first RIR's
unallocated address pool on the 8th August 2012.
There are a lot of assumptions in this model, again as noted on the web
page, but question of interest here is what would be these two dates if
ALL the RIRs were to adopt this policy proposal?
I've adopted a conservative approach to the simulation of this policy
proposal, simplifying the proposal to be a utilization level of 80% for
allocations until IANA reaches 25 /8s, when the utilization level is set
of 85%, and resetting this to 90% when the IANA pool reaches 10 /8s.
The first step has been to generate the following table, which says
"what would be the net reduction in total allocated addresses if the 0.8
address utilisation factor was changed to a different factor value,
assuming that the distribution of demand sizes observed in the past
three years were to continue?"
Factor afrinic apnic arin lacnic ripencc
0.80 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000
0.81 0.994 0.994 0.993 0.994 0.993
0.82 0.987 0.988 0.988 0.989 0.988
0.83 0.981 0.982 0.981 0.982 0.981
0.84 0.973 0.975 0.975 0.976 0.974
0.85 0.970 0.969 0.969 0.968 0.969
0.86 0.961 0.963 0.963 0.961 0.963
0.87 0.956 0.956 0.956 0.957 0.957
0.88 0.950 0.950 0.951 0.949 0.950
0.89 0.943 0.944 0.943 0.945 0.943
0.90 0.935 0.938 0.937 0.936 0.937
0.91 0.931 0.932 0.931 0.934 0.932
0.92 0.922 0.923 0.924 0.927 0.925
0.93 0.921 0.920 0.920 0.918 0.920
0.94 0.913 0.911 0.912 0.914 0.913
0.95 0.903 0.906 0.907 0.904 0.906
0.96 0.905 0.900 0.900 0.901 0.901
0.97 0.897 0.894 0.892 0.895 0.894
0.98 0.890 0.885 0.886 0.889 0.888
0.99 0.882 0.883 0.882 0.878 0.881
1.00 0.877 0.875 0.875 0.876 0.875
Taking the values for the lines corresponding to the factors of 0.85 and
0.90 and plugging them in to the projection model as per the policy
proposal results in the following:
IANA exhaustion date: 8 July 2011 (was 1 June 2011)
First RIR to exhaust its unallocated address pool: 17 October 2012 (was
8 August 2012)
Like all simulations= there are a lot of assumptions at play here, and
I've had to make a number of simplifications in modelling the policy as
proposed, but I trust that this result provides some quantification of
the impact of this proposal on the projected consumption rate of the
unallocated IPv4 address pools.
Thanks,
Geoff Husotn
APNIC
